Inflation Data Keeps Low Rate Hopes Alive

The much-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released this week. For those seeking evidence that inflation will soon be back at the Fed's target level, it wasn't the triumph it might have been. Even so, rates managed to move lower. Mortgage rates and, indeed, most rates are determined by trading levels in the bond market.  Bond yields/rates move higher when inflation is high, and the market has been waiting on signs of lower inflation before trading in a way that allows interest rates to move lower. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the biggest name in monthly inflation reports.  It's caused big reactions in rates many times over the past few years.  In recent months, it's been showing more and more promise regarding a return to inflation levels that would allow for significantly lower rates. But CPI has given false hope before, so traders are wary.  This week's report definitely stopped short of providing resounding confirmation that inflation is defeated.  That said, it didn't send any signals that were too troubling either.   With that in mind, it's not too surprising that rates actually didn't move much in response to CPI.  If anything, the initial impulse was toward slightly higher rates.  It wasn't until the following day's Producer Price Index (PPI) that bond traders saw better evidence of calmer inflation. Both CPI and PPI have been moving lower, but PPI is now all the way back down to target levels.