Highest Mortgage Rates in More Than a Month, But There Are Silver Linings

So far, 2024 has been distinctly different from the end of 2023. November and December saw rates move lower at one of the fastest paces in decades. In contrast, January has delivered a fairly consistent uptrend with the average lender now at the highest levels in more than a month. Frustratingly, widespread media coverage suggested rates fell to their lowest levels since May this week.  Rest assured, this is NOT the case. It wasn't even the case last week, although that the claim would have been less frivolous last week.   The source of the confusion is Freddie Mac's weekly survey which is the longest-running and most widely cited mortgage rate index overall.  While there are a few reasons that it doesn't always line up perfectly with reality, the biggest issue is really the lag effect resulting from the survey's timing and methodology. Freddie takes an average of rate quotes on Thursday through Wednesday and reports that a day later.  In other words, Thursday January 11th through Wednesday January 17th is this week's survey time frame.  The 11th and 12th were the two best days of the past 2 weeks.  They dragged the average down.  Thursday and Friday of the current week have seen the highest rates in more than a month.  They are NOT included in Freddie's survey. Here's a comparison between the Freddie survey rate and the more timely MND daily index.  As always, the best way to use a chart like this is to compare the movement in the lines, because outright rates themselves can be affected by multiple factors.